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Report: Electric heat pumps will usually minimize costs; fuel backup could help in coldest climates
(ACEEE blog, 18 Apr 2024) Heat pumps will be the most cost-effective option for decarbonized heating in all U.S. regions warmer than Madison, Wisconsin, according to a new American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE) report. In the very coldest regions, hybrid systems combining cold-climate heat pumps with low-carbon fuels for heat on the coldest days could likely minimize total costs.
The study calculated the total cost of installing and operating different heating systems in homes that currently use gas furnaces or boilers. It considered only options that would largely decarbonize heating, ruling out long-term use of traditional gas.
In regions with climates warmer or equivalent to Madison—those with 7,000 heating degree days (HDD) or fewer—electric heat pumps will generally be the lowest-cost option, the study found. In still colder regions, the results depended on assumptions about the future of gas distribution:
- In a scenario where gas utility pipes do not need to be replaced and most customers stay on the gas system, the lowest-cost option would generally be a hybrid system combining a cold-climate heat pump with a backup furnace fueled by biogas;
- In a scenario where gas pipes need to be replaced or many customers do not stay on the gas system, a heat pump with electric resistance backup would generally minimize costs, followed closely by a heat pump with a backup furnace fueled by propane made from biogas or ethanol and stored in a small tank on site.
ACEEE blog, 18 Apr 2024: Report: Electric heat pumps will usually minimize costs; fuel backup could help in coldest climates
