Meta-analysis of industry sector transformation strategies in German, European and global deep decarbonisation scenarios

Panel: 6. Deep decarbonisation of industry

This is a peer-reviewed paper.

Authors:
Sascha Samadi, Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, Germany
Claus Barthel, Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment and Energy, Germany

Abstract

This paper analyses and compares industry sector transformation strategies as envisioned in recent German, European and global deep decarbonisation scenarios.

The first part of the paper identifies and categorises ten key strategies for deep emission reductions in the industry sector. These ten key strategies are energy efficiency, direct electrification, use of climateneutral hydrogen and/or synthetic fuels, use of biomass, use of CCS, use of CCU, increases in material efficiency, circular economy, material substitution and end-use demand reductions. The second part of the paper presents a meta-analysis of selected scenarios, focusing on the question of which scenario relies to what extent on the respective mitigation strategies.

The key findings of the meta-analysis are discussed, with an emphasis on identifying those strategies that are commonly pursued in all or the vast majority of the scenarios and those strategies that are only pursued in a limited number of the scenarios. Possible reasons for differences in the choice of strategies are investigated.

The paper concludes by deriving key insights from the analysis, including identifying the main uncertainties that are still apparent with regard to the future steps necessary to achieve deep emission reductions in the industry sector and how future research can address these uncertainties.

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