Potentials for Energy Efficiency in the Swedish Commercial and Service Sector by End-use forecasting using EXCEL and EPRI-COMMEND

Panel: Panel 1: Policy and Programmes - Who can deliver DSM?

Author:
Heini-Marja Suvilehto and Randall Bowie

Abstract

NUTEK? Department of Energy Efficiency (DOEE) divides energy users in different sectors; these are the transport, industrial, residential and commercial sectors. DOEEs energy efficiency programmes include, e.g. (TP), technical procurement and general incentive agreements. This paper will discuss if DOEE? programmes in the commercial sector can be evaluated by using an end-use forecasting model.

Our aim is to estimate the future energy use levels in the Swedish commercial and service sector and what effects DOEE? programmes can have on future energy use in commercial buildings. Our analyses are made by comparing different forecasting scenarios.

One of the scenarios, where there is no DOEE programmes, is the base-line. Other scenarios are reference cases where all the different programmes or methods are studied one by one and in combination with each other, so that different policies for energy use improvements can be investigated. Effects of TP can be analysed separately or with a scenario that includes both TP and other policies.

Our analyses are made by using the EPRI-COMMEND model 1,2 which is a specific model for the commercial sectors energy use. COMMEND is combined with EXCEL spreadsheets, so that different technologies for an end-use can be compared to each other. This is of importance as TP tends to focus attention on specific technologies within an end-use market and there by stimulate and increase competition.

The main difference between our analyses and those made before is the way in which the forecast tool COMMEND is used, especially its detailed lighting module, which provides an even higher level of disaggreation than is normally used in conventional break-downs of end-uses. Furthermore, technology in our model is composed so that all technologies are so up to date as possible and all the technology options which are of present or future interest for the DOEE are taken into account.