Quantifying Market Transformation: The Case of Technology Procurement of Refrigerator-Freezers

Panel: Panel 3: Market Transformation: Innovation, Development and Dissemination

Authors:
Francis X. Johnson, Energy & Environment Division, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, USA
Randall Bowie, NUTEK; Sweden

Abstract

An increasing number of energy efficiency programs are aimed at transforming the market by inducing structural changes that favor more energy-efficient products. Because this involves institutional and organisational changes as well as technological and economic changes, quantifying market transformation has generally been elusive or inappropriate. Yet without some quantitative measures of market impacts, it will be drffrcult to incorporate the goal of market transformation into broader policies and translate knowledge across similar programs.

In this paper, we look at empirical evidence from a market transformation program involving technology procurement of refrigerator/freezers in Sweden that was completed in late 1991. We use historical model and sales data to analyse market impacts with respect to energy-efficiency. Expected future impacts of the program are modeled using the current appliance stock, a characterization of consumer choice, and estimated changes in the availability and price of refrigerator-freezers. The analysis suggests that the benefits to consumers resulting from the program are quite high in comparison to the costs.