Modelling human behavior for policy decisions

Panel: Panel 4: Human Dimensions

Authors:
M. Beeldman
J.M. Bais

Abstract

Knoyledge about the human behaviour is essential for successful energy savings policy. Proper monitoring and evaluation of policy measures enables government and distribution companies to promote energy efficiency in a more cost optimal way. ECN has developed a model for customer behaviour as a tool for determining the most cost optimal way of energy savings, both for natural gas and electricity. This tool estimates customer behaviour with a relatively limited amount of data. However, it gives the user possibilities to use market experiences and new data in future model runs. This paper grves an insight to the model structure and shows the thoughts of ECN of how such a model should look like. The market penetration of energy efficient apphances depends on investment behaviour. The model distinguishes three components;

- the lifetime of appliances to be replaced

- the attitude of the market towards new appliances

the economic attractiveness of the saving option.
The model identifies the bounding component of these three and thus helps to identify the most effective policy measure. User behaviour (the way and the frequency appliances are used) is more difficult to influence. Investment behav-iour is usually related to one decision (the moment of purchase), but user behaviour determines energy consumption during the entire lifetime of the appliance. Learning from previous campaigns is very important for developing a cost optimal campaign for information and re-information.
Model outcomes for expected results of DSM activities have been compared with expectations of experts from a distribution company. The comparison indicates that with a relatively limited amount of input global results can be produced quickly. Furthermore, this model establishes a basis for a structured and consequent way of calculating DSM results.