The effect of the oil price countershock on energy efficiency in transport

Panel: Panel 5: Energy efficiency in transport

Authors:
Dr. Didier Bosseboeuf, French Agency for the Environment and Energy Management (ADEME) with the collaboration of Enerdata s.a. (Grenoble, France)
Cécile Richard, French Agency for the Environment and Energy Management (ADEME) with the collaboration of Enerdata s.a. (Grenoble, France)

Abstract

The oil price countershock has accelerated the trend towards higher energy demand for transport in France, which since 1986 has grown at an annual rate of 2.5%. Nevertheless, since 1993, we have observed a significant slowing down of energy demand growth, down to an average of 0.7% per year, a trend which seems to be confirmed in 1996. This recent phenomenon has occurred despite an annual 2.5% increase in passenger transport (pkm) and 5.5% per year for freight (tkm). To interpret this shift in the trend, we have used at a disaggregated level, a battery of technico-economic energy efficiency indicators, both descriptive and explanatory. Over the 1986-1995 period, the incremental increase in energy demand is close to 9.9 Mtoe. This can mainly be explained, first by an "activity effect" of 9.1 Mtoe due to growth in traffic and secondly by loss of savings of 0.8 Mtoe due to the worsening of unit consumption. Further disaggregation shows that behavioural changes as a response to lower prices have more than offset continuous technological improvement. Nevertheless, historical analysis of recorded incremental energy savings shows that energy efficiency reappeared in this sector after 1993, at a level of magnitude which had prevailed during the period of high fuel prices. During 1994 and 1995, two-thirds of the loss of savings recorded since the oil price countershock were offset. Keys to the interpretation of this new improvement can be found in the pursuit of technical improvements, fuel substitution and some improvement in road traffic conditions. In addition, the hypothesis of improvement in user behaviour due to the anticipation of future increases in fuel prices should not be neglected.